Dost Pakistan Journeys Tours and safaris in the North & South Pakistsn
Related Articles
Iraq’s Dawn of Sovereignty: Unpacking the US Coalition Withdrawal and Its Complex Aftermath
The recent formal conclusion of the US-led coalition’s mission in Iraq, Operation Inherent Resolve, marks a watershed moment for the nation, hailed by Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi as the dawn of a new era of “sovereignty.” While the ceremonial declarations resonate with national pride and aspirations for self-determination, the path forward for Iraq remains fraught with significant challenges, particularly concerning internal security, the control of non-state armed actors, and continued external influences.
The News: A Strategic Pivot in Iraq
On Wednesday, the United States officially announced the conclusion of Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq, aligning with a September 2024 US-Iraq joint statement. This move signifies the end of a decade-long military presence by an international coalition primarily tasked with combating the Islamic State (IS) group, which had seized vast territories in Iraq and Syria in 2014.
Though IS was territorially defeated in Iraq by 2017 and in Syria by 2019, coalition forces, led by the US, remained to counter the group’s remnants and support Iraqi Security Forces. Over recent years, coalition troops gradually withdrew, consolidating their presence mainly in Iraq’s autonomous northern Kurdistan region before the final formal conclusion. Despite the withdrawal of direct combat troops, the Pentagon confirmed it would “continue to provide targeted training and intelligence support” to Iraqi partners, signaling an ongoing, albeit modified, security relationship.
Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi celebrated this development, proclaiming October 1 as “Sovereignty Day.” He emphasized that a “new phase has begun, defined by Iraq’s sovereignty, the strength of its institutions, the readiness of its forces, unity of decision-making, and balanced partnerships with its friends.” The Iraqi government views this exit as crucial, hoping it will remove the primary pretext used by powerful armed factions to maintain their arsenals outside state control.
Background: A Legacy of Conflict and Instability
To fully grasp the significance of this withdrawal, one must consider Iraq’s turbulent modern history. The 2003 US-led invasion and the subsequent overthrow of Saddam Hussein dismantled the existing state structure, inadvertently paving the way for a protracted period of insurgency, sectarian conflict, and the rise of al-Qaeda in Iraq.
When US troops initially withdrew in 2011, a power vacuum, combined with political instability and the civil war in neighboring Syria, created fertile ground for the resurgence of extremist elements. This culminated in the dramatic rise of the Islamic State (ISIS or Daesh) in 2014. ISIS’s brutal campaign of terror, territorial conquests, and genocidal acts shocked the international community, prompting the formation of the Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, led by the US, to intervene in Iraq and Syria.
The coalition, alongside Iraqi Security Forces (ISF), Kurdish Peshmerga fighters, and various Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF – many of which are Iran-backed militias), played a critical role in rolling back ISIS’s territorial gains. However, the presence of foreign troops, particularly American, also became a contentious issue within Iraq’s complex political landscape, fueling anti-occupation sentiments among certain political factions and armed groups, many of whom have close ties to Iran. These groups often viewed the coalition’s presence as an infringement on Iraqi sovereignty and used it as justification for their continued armed existence outside the state’s direct command.
Impact on Pakistan: Indirect Ripples in Regional Stability
While the US-led coalition’s withdrawal from Iraq directly concerns Middle Eastern security, its impact on Pakistan is largely indirect rather than immediate or substantial. Pakistan was not a direct combatant in Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq, nor does it share a direct geopolitical border with Iraq.
- Regional Stability: Pakistan, situated in a volatile region itself, benefits from overall stability in the Middle East. A more stable Iraq, free from major internal conflict or a resurgent ISIS, contributes to broader regional calm. This can positively influence global oil prices, which is crucial for Pakistan as a net energy importer.
- Counter-Terrorism Lessons: Pakistan has extensive experience in countering terrorism and non-state actors within its own borders. The Iraqi government’s attempts to assert its monopoly on force and disarm powerful militias, while also battling ISIS remnants, offer potential lessons – both successes and failures – for other nations grappling with similar challenges. Pakistan’s strategic thinkers will likely observe how Iraq manages these complex internal security dynamics post-withdrawal.
- Geopolitical Shifts: Any significant shift in the US’s military footprint and strategic priorities in the Middle East can have ripple effects on global geopolitics. For Pakistan, which often navigates complex relationships with major powers, understanding these broader shifts is part of its strategic calculus, potentially influencing its diplomatic and security alignments.
In essence, while the Iraqi developments do not directly threaten Pakistan’s security, they form part of a larger canvas of global and regional stability that indirectly affects Pakistan’s economic and strategic interests through energy markets, geopolitical alignments, and shared challenges in combating extremism.
Analysis: The True Test of Iraqi Sovereignty
Prime Minister Zaidi’s pronouncement of a new era of sovereignty is both a celebration and a profound challenge. The formal departure of foreign combat forces undoubtedly removes a long-standing grievance for many Iraqis and fulfills a key demand of powerful armed groups. However, the core challenges to Iraq’s “full sovereignty” are internal and deeply entrenched.
1. The Disarmament Dilemma
The most pressing issue is the state’s ability to assert its monopoly on force. The Iraqi government’s initial intention to set a September 30 deadline for factions to disarm, only to withdraw it later, underscores the immense difficulty of this task. Powerful, Iran-backed groups like Kataeb Hezbollah not only resist disarmament but also articulate conditions that extend beyond foreign troop withdrawal, demanding an end to “American political and economic interference.” This reveals a deeper ideological struggle and a challenge to the Iraqi state’s ultimate authority. The withdrawal may have removed an “excuse,” but it has not diminished the factions’ power or their willingness to leverage it.
2. The Persistent Shadow of ISIS
While ISIS no longer controls territory, it remains a potent insurgent force, conducting attacks and exploiting security gaps. The US commitment to “targeted training and intelligence support” highlights international recognition of this enduring threat. Iraq’s security forces, despite significant improvements since 2014, will face the true test of their capabilities in maintaining sustained pressure on ISIS remnants without direct coalition combat support. The effectiveness of intelligence sharing and training will be paramount.
3. External Influences and Internal Fragility
Iraq’s sovereignty is also influenced by regional powers, notably Iran. The close ties between powerful Iraqi militias and Tehran create a complex web of allegiance that can undermine Baghdad’s authority and complicate its foreign policy. PM Zaidi’s call for “balanced partnerships” suggests an aspiration for an independent foreign policy, but achieving this equilibrium will require astute diplomacy and a strong, unified national government. The threat from Kataeb Hezbollah to “bring down” a government not working for its people further highlights the fragility of Iraq’s political system and the constant power struggles that impede stable governance.
4. A Symbolic but Incomplete Victory
The formal conclusion of Operation Inherent Resolve is a highly symbolic victory for Iraq, signifying a major step towards reclaiming full national agency. It offers an opportunity for the Iraqi government to consolidate its power, unify its security forces, and focus on nation-building without the perceived impediment of foreign military presence. However, true sovereignty will only be achieved when the Iraqi state fully controls its territory, disarms all non-state actors, and navigates regional influences while effectively protecting its citizens from internal and external threats.
Iraq stands at a critical juncture. The celebrations of “Sovereignty Day” are well-deserved, marking the end of one chapter. The real work, however, of building a strong, unified, and truly sovereign state, free from the dictates of both external powers and internal armed factions, has just begun.
